Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Stock Market Forecast March through August, 2017: Weaker

The six month stock market forecasts from my models range from a possible gain of 6% to a loss of -2%. The composite prediction is for a loss of roughly -1% with a probability of at least breaking even of 0.70, which is slightly below average.  Generally, the models do not see a basis for the sharp stock market gains since the election. The forecast for just March, however, is positive.





About the chart:  Each data point was an actual U.S. stock market forecast made in real time starting in 2007.  Red points were predictions that the market will fall -5% or more over the six months following the forecast.  Green points were positive or neutral market expectations for the coming six months.

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