Stock Market Forecast February through July, 2017 -About Average

Through July, 2017 my forecasting models are expecting the U.S. stock market to rise about 6% to 8% . That is better than average.  The models see the probability of the market at least breaking even as somewhere between 66% and 85% -- roughly about average.

Besides my tested original model,  monthly market forecasts going forward will be derived from several additional, largely independent, econometric models. All of the models stem from business/economic fundamentals rather than Technical Analysis or other forms of trend projection.

What is interesting is that a new model largely based on corporate profits and a different model based mainly on various interest rates  'tell' basically the same story over several decades.  My hope is that with this broader base of economic variables, the net effect will be that the outputs will be less susceptible to bits of data that are unusual, and probably misleading, outliers.

As always, don't bet the farm on these models.  They now have a significant experience base, but reality will often be different from expectations.

For example - my models have no direct knowledge of the administration of Donald Trump.

On a personal side, I don't see that ending well.

There is far more downside potential than upside potential in the market at present. The Market Fair Value chart at morningstar.com reports that the market is currently estimated as 3% overvalued.  Go to the 'Max' time period view.  The market seldom rises much above the 3% value without a significant correction fairly soon thereafter.