My 4 semi-independent six month stock market forecasting models are in general agreement. The one-month forecast is for a negligible gain of just 0.1%. Once the weather starts cooling, the outlook improves. The composite prediction is a gain of roughly 6% from June, 2017 through November, 2017. That is better than the average gain of 4.8%.
The likelihood of at least breaking even over the next six months is around 90%. Historically, stocks break even or rise about 70% of the time over all 6 month stretches since 1984.
My models still do not know how to read newspapers so they can't account for any of the political foibles are are now playing out in Washington. Wish I was so lucky.
Have a nice summer. It doesn't look like anything really bad is on the horizon.
