Stock Market Forecast September 2016 thru February 2017: No Net Gain

Six months from now the U.S. stock market should wind up right where it is today, at least that is what my forecasting models expect. No net gain for he next six months and only about a 50/50 chance that stocks do better than break even. In between, the models have been expecting the market to stumble with a drop of perhaps 5%.

What's up?  The market has been hitting new highs so there is relatively little likelihood that stocks will have any quick bounces up, rather a temporary drop becomes probable. Also, the market in September and October historically tends to under-perform.  Other than that, most economic indicators don't point to any dramatic shifts coming.  The net result is that if past economic performance is any guide, the market shouldn't be going anywhere in the next half year.

(Click on image to enlarge.)