Stock Market Forecast August 2016 through January 2017: Flat

My six month stock market forecasting models expect zero gains over the next half year with about normal odds of at least breaking even.

The stock market rebound from the 'Brexit' dip has been spectacular. However, no two ways about it, my short term trading model was completely wrong, having turned negative last month. I missed the rebound entirely.

My 6 month forecast made at the start of February did better -- it had projected very good 9% gains to come over the period. That is closer to what actually transpired.

Well, what can I say?  My models don't know anything about politics or human emotions. They only consider basic economic variables that have been shown over the past half century to generally lead the stock market by several months.  What they say now is that some sort of short term market tumble of up to about 10% is looking pretty likely over the next several months. Doesn't mean that will happen, just means that the models say it is likely.