Update on the Next Stock Market Crash

I have updated the page that follows a few slow moving indicators that are likely to point to the next stock market crash that will eventually come. Here is a quick summary.

The long term stock market indicators are less favorable than at the start of the year, but don't point to a stock market collapse in the near future. According to them, the next market disaster still could be a couple of years away.

• Margin Debt High? Margin borrowing is rising, but levels are still below the historical trend..
• GDP vs Potential GDP? The economy remains relatively weak, a good sign
• Sharply higher interest rates? Rates are still near historic lows.
• U.S. Leading Index Crashing?  Weaker.  The drop in the index has not been enough to point to recession, but it is enough to worry about.
• Market Reverting to the Mean? The overall market is near its long term trend making major near term gains unlikely. However, a crash reverting to or below the mean is still unlikely.
• Merger & Acquisition Activity Peaking?  Worth a worry or two.  M&A activity is climbing rapidly, pointing to a developing bubble. The question is just when it will eventually pop. There is no reason to expect it will be right away.