Stock Market Forecast June to December 2015: Flat

Just like last month, my models are predicting no net gain for the U.S. stock market for the coming six months.  It's  roughly 50/50 whether the market can break even.   The forecast isn't bad enough to make it worthwhile to sell stocks, and it isn't good enough to suggest buying much.  Overall, your time is probably better spent at the beach for the next few months rather than thinking much about stocks.

All of the quick and easy gains in this bull market have been tapped.  Any further market increases  need climbing corporate profits.  But, bigger profits are hard to come by as the real economy remains lackluster despite interest rates that are incredibly low by historical standards. When interest rates eventually increase, new profits will be even more difficult to find.


U.S. Stock Market Forecast (Value Line Arithmetic Index):
Probable stock market gain 6/1/2015 to 12/1/2015: 0% (Avg. 6 mo. gain since 1984: 4.8%)
Probability of at least breaking even : ~ 56%   (Average for all months since 1984: 73%

(Click on image to enlarge)

For the past year or so the market and my models have matched rather closely.  For the past 6 months the model had expected nearly an 8% gain and over the period the market actually gained 5.3%.  This gives some comfort that the market is behaving in a thoroughly normal way and is not under the domination or some sort of lurking Black Swan.