Stock Market Forecast August, 2017 through January, 2018: Weak start, good finish

Out of the  countless economic statistics available, relatively few factors actually foretell stock market changes.  Usually, the hyper-sensitive stock market is a much better leading indicator for other economic variables rather than the other way around.

Fortunately, most of the time-tested leading statistics don't  usually change quickly. So, not surprisingly, the my models' expectations for the U.S. stock market have not changed much from last month.

The models say that the summer is likely to show relatively weak performance for the next month -- maybe a slight loss of about half a percent.  But, for the rest of 2017 stock prices should strengthen, ending with a net gain of slightly below 6% by the end of January 2018.

Long term, the U.S. stock market has risen about 73% of all 6-month periods. Pretty good!  For the coming 6 months the prospect of at least breaking even is well above average as a bit above 90%.

Enjoy your summer!

For now, I suggest you save your worries for something other than the market.  My models don't see huge and avoidable problems cropping up in the near future.  That doesn't mean that Earth won't be hit by some huge asteroid tomorrow destroying nearly everything.  It just means that my models that match U.S. stock market performance pretty well over the past 35 years don't see huge storm clouds on the near horizon.  Never put all your eggs in one basket.  But, f you need to carry some eggs, put them in a basket that is fairly trustworthy.

(Click on image to enlarge.)