The six month stock market forecasts from my models range from a possible gain of 6% to a loss of -2%. The composite prediction is for a loss of roughly -1% with a probability of at least breaking even of 0.70, which is slightly below average. Generally, the models do not see a basis for the sharp stock market gains since the election. The forecast for just March, however, is positive.
About the chart: Each data point was an actual U.S. stock market forecast made in real time starting in 2007. Red points were predictions that the market will fall -5% or more over the six months following the forecast. Green points were positive or neutral market expectations for the coming six months.
