Stock Market Forecast October 2016 thru March 2017: Negative

Just when I thought my forecasting models were starting to look up, the predictive market models models have turned decidedly negative.  For the next 6 months the models project that there will most probably be a loss of about 6% and only about a 50/50 chance of at least breaking even -- well below the 73% historical average of breaking even in any random 6 month stretch.

My negative forecast, of course, doesn't mean the market must go down. The forecast means only that if the market responds to the same influences that have tended to drive it for the past three decades, then it probably will face real (but, hopefully not too scary) difficulties.

Since, my forecast is neither extremely negative or positive, it wouldn't surprise me if, for the next few months, outside events, such as the presidential election overshadowed the sorts of economic realities that define my forecasting models.

(Click on image to enlarge.)