April 2016 through September 2016: My forecasting models expect positive, but below average market gains over the next 6 months. (roughly 3% gain, 70% chance for break even with 73% being the long term break even probability.)
Spring flowers are just starting to come up where I live, but my stock market forecasting models are already anticipating that stock market gains over summer months will be weak following a normal seasonal pattern. The model says that 3% projected gains through the end of September will be below long term stock market price appreciation. My models know nothing about politics, but personally I will bet on some sort of market stumble as the Republican and Democratic presidential conventions get underway.
That said, it is still springtime so April, and probably May will likely produce better than average results. The second graph below shows that a time lagged forecast using my models remains bullish.
(Click on image to enlarge.)
(Click on image to enlarge.)
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