Stock market trading based on 6 month stock market forecasts

I am adding a stock market trading strategy to my monthly blog posts, a Buy-Sell-Hold  model for the U.S. stock market based on a weighted average of my forecasts from prior months.

From the start, there has been a problem making use of my six month stock market forecasts:  what's going to happen in the stock market six months from now has very little correlation with what the market is going to do in the next few days and weeks. (Just because I know it is going to get hot next summer, that's not much help in knowing whether I need to wear a coat outside in mid-November.)

The solution I have come up with is to develop a stock market trading strategy based on a statistically weighted average of my 6 month stock market forecasts from prior months, not the current prediction.

Below there is a plot of the Buy/Sell calls from the model for the S&P 500 index over the past several years.  Most of the time the strategy yields a clear Buy/Sell opinion, but there are a few spans of time when the model had no real opinion.

(Click on image to enlarge.)