U.S. Stocks stumbled in January, but came roaring back in February. I had forecast a strong 6 month gain of 8% last September, but the market more than doubled on my expectations with a 17% burst! As far as my models are concerned I'll still call that a win -- the forecast was for the market to go up nicely and it did. The models are not expected to be accurate. The goal here is just to usually anticipate the market's general direction.
The model's forecasts from 3/1/2014 to 9/1/2014 are weak and falling. The market, of course, will do what it wants. But, factors that historically have affected the market are weak. Not bad, just anemic.
Probable market gain from 3/1/2014 to 9/1/2014: 0% (Average since 1984: 4.8%)
Probability of at least breaking even : 58% ( Average since 1984: 73%).
(click on image to enlarge)
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