Six Month Stock Market Forecast

Public real-time testing of a family of six month stock market forecasting models.

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Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Google includes an email subscription feature for this blogosphere, so this is a test...

Tom Tiedeman: Since 2007 most every month In real time I have published forecasts for the U.S. stock market six months into the future. The results have been surprisingly good (Rsq. ~ 0.50), but this should not be considered to be financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. My purpose is simple: at some point I would like to sell the model. But, why would any company want to buy it without established credibility. Technically, the forecasts are for the Value Line Arithmetic Average, an equal-weighted performance index based on approximately 1700 large U.S. companies. In most situations better known indexes such as the NASDAQ, Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average will behave about the same as the Value Line Arithmetic Average -- but they are more prone to being distorted by localized stock market bubbles. * The glaring exception to monthly publishing was for about two years of the pandemic. I feared that the economic disruption of the pandemic destroyed any possibility of normal market behavior. (It turns out that the models still worked rather well during the period,)

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