Six Month Stock Market Forecast

Public real-time testing of a family of six month stock market forecasting models.

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Saturday, December 2, 2017

Stock Market Forecast December, 2017: Visions of Sugar-Plums Dancing

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One Month Forecast December, 2017:  1.3% gain (above average) 6 Month Stock Market Forecast December thru May, 2018: 3% (somewhat below av...
Wednesday, November 1, 2017

6 Month Stock Market Forecast: Strong start, then average performance

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November 2017 through April 2018: 5% gains projected (about average) November 2017: 2% one month expected increase (unusually strong) Like...
Saturday, October 14, 2017

Boring, Boring, Boring, Crash

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It has to be more fun writing for a stock market web site like MarketWatch.com.  Seems like every day they have a column suggesting  an immi...
1 comment:
Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Coming 6 months slightly better than average for stocks

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October, 2017 expected gains 1.8%. October, 2017 through March, 2018: Probable 5 percent gain. The consensus of my forecasting models is ...
2 comments:
Thursday, August 31, 2017

6 Month Stock Forecast September, 2017 through February, 2018

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(Note: The October market forecast will be a few days late.) My models expect another month of weak results for the U.S. stock market, but...
Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Why not forecast the Dow Jones Industrials or the S&P 500?

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The Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are the best known stock market indicators, but the way these a...
Monday, July 31, 2017

Stock Market Forecast August, 2017 through January, 2018: Weak start, good finish

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Out of the  countless economic statistics available, relatively few factors actually foretell stock market changes.  Usually, the hyper-sens...
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About These Forecasts

Tom Tiedeman
Since 2007 most every month In real time I have published forecasts for the U.S. stock market six months into the future. The results have been surprisingly good (Rsq. ~ 0.50), but this should not be considered to be financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. My purpose is simple: at some point I would like to sell the model. But, why would any company want to buy it without established credibility. Technically, the forecasts are for the Value Line Arithmetic Average, an equal-weighted performance index based on approximately 1700 large U.S. companies. In most situations better known indexes such as the NASDAQ, Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average will behave about the same as the Value Line Arithmetic Average -- but they are more prone to being distorted by localized stock market bubbles. * The glaring exception to monthly publishing was for about two years of the pandemic. I feared that the economic disruption of the pandemic destroyed any possibility of normal market behavior. (It turns out that the models still worked rather well during the period,)
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