The forecasting models continue to predict a typical weak/flat stock market during the summer months followed by a good upturn in the fall. The one month forecast is for a gain of just 0.1% for July and nearly a 6% gain following through the end of December. The model gives the probability of at least breaking even over the period as slightly over 90% -- decidedly better than average.
The stock market started off this year strong -- much better than my models had predicted. More recently the actual and predicted market performance have been close. The typical causes of a stock market crash seem to be taking the summer off. Be grateful for small favors.
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