The current six month stock market forecast for May through October, 2017 is nearly flat -- a sub-normal 1% gain over the coming half-year, and no gains during May. The likelihood of the market at least breaking even over the next half year is 0.71, slightly less than average. Meh.
According to MarketWatch.com the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had record gains (14%) from the election through President Trump's first 100 days in office -- best returns for the start of a president's first term since WWII. My prediction models didn't see that coming.
The models anticipated flat market performance for most of the past half-year. So, either my models were just plain wrong, or more probably the stock market was propelled not by economic data, but by hope of wonderous Trump-promised gains in corporate profits. The 'Trump Bump, however, may have stalled -- for the past two months the market has been flat. I would not be surprised if the stock market stumbles if the hopes of huge profit gains vanish as Trump's version of tax reform flounders in Congress. Either way, the basic economic data does not presage a huge market move up or down.
