Sliding Market -- Be careful

The U.S. stock market forecasts coming out of my models for the coming 6 months are very weak -- definitely worse than average.  Through January the stock market stumbled much like the model had forecasted.  If the market and the economy behave in a  fairly typical fashion, my forecasts over the next couple of months will continue to slide, and the market may well do worse than my models predict.  Sorry about that.


Probable Market Gain:                 1% to 2%         (Average since 1984 4.9%)
Probability of Breaking Even:    57% to 60%       (Average since 1984 73%)

 

(Click on graph to enlarge.)