For several years I have been testing a fairly simple model I developed for forecasting the U.S. stock market.  Every six months or so I have included my forecast in a newsletter that I distributed to patient friends.  The results have been pretty encouraging, so I decided to try adding them to a blog.

My current forecast covers May to the end of October 2013. The models forecast a stock market rise of 7%.  The probablility of the market at least breaking even during the period is 76%. The chance of at least a temporary correction during the period is better than even -- 53%.  Personally, I think that the model is a bit optimistic, so my own guess would be for a return of only 4% or so.

Here is the scribd.com link for the full newsletter:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136737586/TomT-Stock-Market-Model-2013-04-21